Lunes, 21 Enero 2019

Algunas reflexiones sobre Tlahuelilpan*

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Alejandro Hope

1. El huachicoleo es, ante todo, un problema de seguridad humana. Es imperativo combatirlo no tanto por la merma que significa a las finanzas del Estado, sino por la amenaza que significa para las comunidades donde se asienta. Ese es, tal vez, el mensaje central de la tragedia de Tlahuelilpan: esto no se trata de ahorrar pesos, sino de salvar vidas.

2. Dada esa lógica, se vuelve crucial reflexionar sobre instrumentos, interacciones y consecuencias imprevistas ¿El desabasto reciente, generado en parte por el cierre deliberado de ductos, empujó a las bandas criminales hacia métodos más riesgosos de robo de combustible? ¿El incremento de precios en el mercado ilegal o las noticias sobre la escasez de gasolina condujeron a que más pobladores de Tlahuelilpan se acercasen al ducto perforado? No lo sé, pero me parece importante empezar a hacer esas preguntas.

3. La tragedia pone en alto relieve la dimensión social del huachicoleo. El robo de combustible no es, como inicialmente fue presentado por el actual gobierno, un asunto solo de arriba, de corrupción en las altas esferas, de contubernios delictivos en un piso de la torre de Pemex. Es un ecosistema amplio y complejo que involucra a miles de personas, algunas en condiciones de alta marginación, algunas roban combustible como medio único de subsistencia, algunas solo cuando la oportunidad brinca. Eso no se resuelve a punta de detenciones, con endurecimiento de penas o prisión preventiva oficiosa. Requiere respuestas inteligentes y focalizadas de política social, dirigidas con láser a las comunidades afectadas por el fenómeno.

4. Aún no sabemos qué o quién falló en las dos horas que transcurrieron entre la detección de la fuga y la explosión, pero, a reserva de conocer más detalles, parecería haber un fracaso colectivo del Estado. En una serie de tuits, el analista Rodrigo Elizarrarás (@rodaxiando) explicaba lo siguiente: “En el tema de protocolos de actuación: 1) Pemex se encarga del ducto y fuga (hay brigadas para atender esas situaciones); 2) Protección civil (del estado) de la contención y asegurar a la población; 3) Se arma un perímetro militar para protección y aseguramiento del área; 4) Policía federal/estatal apoya en perímetro y con población; 5) En caso de ser necesario se llama a bomberos y ambulancias… Al parecer, nada de eso pasó o no nos queda del todo claro.” Dada la probabilidad de que múltiples autoridades, desde el municipio hasta diversas dependencias federales, hayan sido omisas en sus responsabilidades, se requiere una investigación amplia e imparcial. Esta es la primera prueba de fuego para la nueva Fiscalía General de la República, pero también es indispensable que el Congreso de la Unión haga uso de sus facultades de investigación.

5. El accidente reveló un punto débil de la estrategia del gobierno en la campaña contra el huachicoleo: la escasez de personal federal para la vigilancia de la red de ductos. En dos horas de fuga, no llegaron más de 25 elementos del Ejército y la Policía Federal. Añádase que el personal desplegado estaba equipado para repeler a un grupo armado, no para enfrentar un evento masivo de rapiña. Ese ralo despliegue federal probablemente se replique en otras regiones afectadas por el huachicoleo. Y eso tiene una implicación estratégica: en la situación actual, no hay manera de garantizar la integridad de los ductos sin la colaboración activa de gobiernos estatales y municipales. Este combate no se puede ganar desde la Ciudad de México.

6. Por último, reitero lo dicho hace unas semanas tras la muerte de la gobernadora de Puebla: “ante una tragedia, la primera regla es no ser un cretino. La segunda regla es no ser un cretino.” Murieron decenas de personas y decenas más siguen peleando por su vida. Tratemos de ser decentes.

* Publicado en eluniversal.com.mx [enero 21, 2018]

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